Scratch

illusionist · 2010-05-02 14:15:24

It has been 7 months since the millionth project.

In those 7 months, we have produced 400,000 more projects.

When do you think we will get our 2,000,000th? smile

I like to use this thing: http://www.timeanddate.com/date/dateadd.html
______________

I predict it will be on October 11, 2011

Last edited by illusionist (2010-11-14 20:12:28)

BWOG · 2010-05-02 14:18:15

At the rate we're going at, it would take about 1026 more days.

illusionist · 2010-05-02 14:19:27

BWOG wrote:
At the rate we're going at, it would take about 1026 more days.

I calculated 519 days.

BWOG · 2010-05-02 14:21:20

illusionist wrote:
BWOG wrote:
At the rate we're going at, it would take about 1026 more days.
I calculated 519 days.

How did you calculate it? I did 23,120 divided by 12 for how many per day, then divided 2 million by the answer to 23,120/12.

Greatdane · 2010-05-02 14:22:53

Let me do the calculation.

I'm better at it than Illusionist. tongue

I'll come back.

meew0 · 2010-05-02 14:24:45

When Scratch dies, ∞-∞-∞.

Last edited by meew0 (2010-05-02 14:24:54)

BWOG · 2010-05-02 14:25:51

meew0 wrote:
When Scratch dies, ∞-∞-∞.

What?

illusionist · 2010-05-02 14:27:25

BWOG wrote:
illusionist wrote:
BWOG wrote:
At the rate we're going at, it would take about 1026 more days.
I calculated 516 days.
How did you calculate it? I did 23,120 divided by 12 for how many per day, then divided 2 million by the answer to 23,120/12.

Bwog, we are only 1,000,000 away from 2,000,000! You need to use the remaining 1,000,000 in your equation.

I did this:

23120 projects = 12 days

23120 * 43 = (a number close to 1,000,000)

43 * 12 = 516 days. Today + 516 = Monday, October 3, 2011.

illusionist · 2010-05-02 14:28:42

I'll re-calculate... just because...

EDIT:

507 days! It will be on: Wednesday, September 21, 2011

Last edited by illusionist (2010-05-02 14:30:45)

BWOG · 2010-05-02 14:31:14

illusionist wrote:
BWOG wrote:
illusionist wrote:

I calculated 516 days.
How did you calculate it? I did 23,120 divided by 12 for how many per day, then divided 2 million by the answer to 23,120/12.
Bwog, we are only 1,000,000 away from 2,000,000! You need to use the remaining 1,000,000 in your equation.

I did this:

23120 projects = 12 days

23120 * 43 = (a number close to 1,000,000)

43 * 12 = 516 days. Today + 516 = Monday, October 3, 2011.

Oh, whoops.

illusionist · 2010-05-02 14:31:59

BWOG wrote:
illusionist wrote:
BWOG wrote:

How did you calculate it? I did 23,120 divided by 12 for how many per day, then divided 2 million by the answer to 23,120/12.
Bwog, we are only 1,000,000 away from 2,000,000! You need to use the remaining 1,000,000 in your equation.

I did this:

23120 projects = 12 days

23120 * 43 = (a number close to 1,000,000)

43 * 12 = 516 days. Today + 516 = Monday, October 3, 2011.
Oh, whoops.

You found the date of 3,000,000. lol

Lucario621 · 2010-05-02 14:39:31

I predict May 2, 2011 tongue

adriangl · 2010-05-02 14:39:43

Monday, October 5th

I used your math function except I got something closer using 43.2*12. But that means it will happen in the morning...

steppenwulf · 2010-05-02 14:49:48

All of your calculations are wrong because your forgot to factor in the number of new users that will join daily, and make more projects. There is no way to calculate that, anyway.

demosthenes · 2010-05-02 15:00:48

steppenwulf wrote:
All of your calculations are wrong because your forgot to factor in the number of new users that will join daily, and make more projects. There is no way to calculate that, anyway.

I got within an hour for the 1000000 project.

My current estimation dominates all tongue

July 15th 2010 5:49 PM

This is using the function for 1,000,000 that got me within an hour.

It is assuming the rate of change of the rate of change remains constant.

I'll probably be off a little though big_smile

EDIT I'll give a revised thing soon.

Last edited by demosthenes (2010-05-02 15:01:06)

steppenwulf · 2010-05-02 15:01:57

demosthenes wrote:
steppenwulf wrote:
All of your calculations are wrong because your forgot to factor in the number of new users that will join daily, and make more projects. There is no way to calculate that, anyway.
I got within an hour for the 1000000 project.

My current estimation dominates all

July 15th 2010 5:49 PM

This is using the function for 1,000,000 that got me within an hour.

It is assuming the rate of change of the rate of change remains constant.

I'll probably be off a little though

EDIT I'll give a revised thing soon.

That's what she said.

Lol jk.

Musicstar888 · 2010-05-02 15:04:54

ill take a wild guess. 1209 days! smile

Lucario621 · 2010-05-02 15:49:36

This might be handy:

http://stats.scratch.mit.edu/community/usersbytime.html

Aidan · 2010-05-02 17:31:43

You guys are doing it by our current rate, but remember, the number of Scratch projects grows exponentially, not linearly.

demosthenes · 2010-05-02 18:05:28

Aidan wrote:
You guys are doing it by our current rate, but remember, the number of Scratch projects grows exponentially, not linearly.

Not exponentially, but parabolically and I tried to compensate for that smile

Greatdane · 2010-05-02 18:32:44

demosthenes wrote:
steppenwulf wrote:
...
I got within an hour for the 1000000 project.

My current estimation dominates all

July 15th 2010 5:49 PM

This is using the function for 1,000,000 that got me within an hour.

It is assuming the rate of change of the rate of change remains constant.

I'll probably be off a little though

EDIT I'll give a revised thing soon.

I got within half an hour. I guessed at 1:00 PM and it happened at 1:24 PM.

demosthenes · 2010-05-02 18:44:19

Greatdane wrote:
demosthenes wrote:
steppenwulf wrote:
...
I got within an hour for the 1000000 project.

My current estimation dominates all

July 15th 2010 5:49 PM

This is using the function for 1,000,000 that got me within an hour.

It is assuming the rate of change of the rate of change remains constant.

I'll probably be off a little though

EDIT I'll give a revised thing soon.
I got within half an hour. I guessed at 1:00 PM and it happened at 1:24 PM.

I could've sworn it was 10:54 that it was uploaded. (I could be lying)

scmb1 · 2010-05-02 18:48:06

Let's see...

Using absolutely 0 math (weird, eh?), I have determined that we will reach 2,000,000 on (drum roll please)...

January 6th, 2011 at 5:28 pm and 46.8 seconds!

So there you go. big_smile

Last edited by scmb1 (2010-05-02 18:50:05)

illusionist · 2010-05-02 18:49:23

demosthenes wrote:
steppenwulf wrote:
All of your calculations are wrong because your forgot to factor in the number of new users that will join daily, and make more projects. There is no way to calculate that, anyway.
My current estimation dominates all

July 15th 2010 5:49 PM

We are NOT getting 1,000,000 more projects in 2 months...

ThePCKid · 2010-05-02 18:49:52

illusionist wrote:
demosthenes wrote:
steppenwulf wrote:
All of your calculations are wrong because your forgot to factor in the number of new users that will join daily, and make more projects. There is no way to calculate that, anyway.
My current estimation dominates all

July 15th 2010 5:49 PM
We are NOT getting 1,000,000 more projects in 2 months...

O RLY?

Scratch

archived forums

#1 2010-05-02 14:15:24

Calculate the 2,000,000th project Date

#2 2010-05-02 14:18:15

Re: Calculate the 2,000,000th project Date

#3 2010-05-02 14:19:27

Re: Calculate the 2,000,000th project Date

BWOG wrote:

#4 2010-05-02 14:21:20

Re: Calculate the 2,000,000th project Date

illusionist wrote:

BWOG wrote:

#5 2010-05-02 14:22:53

Re: Calculate the 2,000,000th project Date

#6 2010-05-02 14:24:45

Re: Calculate the 2,000,000th project Date

#7 2010-05-02 14:25:51

Re: Calculate the 2,000,000th project Date

meew0 wrote:

#8 2010-05-02 14:27:25

Re: Calculate the 2,000,000th project Date

BWOG wrote:

illusionist wrote:

BWOG wrote:

#9 2010-05-02 14:28:42

Re: Calculate the 2,000,000th project Date

#10 2010-05-02 14:31:14

Re: Calculate the 2,000,000th project Date

illusionist wrote:

BWOG wrote:

illusionist wrote:

#11 2010-05-02 14:31:59

Re: Calculate the 2,000,000th project Date

BWOG wrote:

illusionist wrote:

BWOG wrote:

#12 2010-05-02 14:39:31

Re: Calculate the 2,000,000th project Date

#13 2010-05-02 14:39:43

Re: Calculate the 2,000,000th project Date

#14 2010-05-02 14:49:48

Re: Calculate the 2,000,000th project Date

#15 2010-05-02 15:00:48

Re: Calculate the 2,000,000th project Date

steppenwulf wrote:

#16 2010-05-02 15:01:57

Re: Calculate the 2,000,000th project Date

demosthenes wrote:

steppenwulf wrote:

#17 2010-05-02 15:04:54

Re: Calculate the 2,000,000th project Date

#18 2010-05-02 15:49:36

Re: Calculate the 2,000,000th project Date

#19 2010-05-02 17:31:43

Re: Calculate the 2,000,000th project Date

#20 2010-05-02 18:05:28

Re: Calculate the 2,000,000th project Date

Aidan wrote:

#21 2010-05-02 18:32:44

Re: Calculate the 2,000,000th project Date

demosthenes wrote:

steppenwulf wrote:

#22 2010-05-02 18:44:19

Re: Calculate the 2,000,000th project Date

Greatdane wrote:

demosthenes wrote:

steppenwulf wrote:

#23 2010-05-02 18:48:06

Re: Calculate the 2,000,000th project Date

#24 2010-05-02 18:49:23

Re: Calculate the 2,000,000th project Date

demosthenes wrote:

steppenwulf wrote:

#25 2010-05-02 18:49:52

Re: Calculate the 2,000,000th project Date

illusionist wrote:

demosthenes wrote:

steppenwulf wrote:

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