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#26 2009-11-23 15:55:52

cocoanut
Scratcher
Registered: 2007-07-10
Posts: 1000+

Re: Number of Projects

what-the wrote:

TheSaint wrote:

what-the wrote:

These equations proudly brought to you by my $300 doller caculator  smile

I can do it with my 100 dollar one. Have you thought of a quadratic equation might be a better fit? Probably will once we get more data.

Bow down to my o mighty powerful touch screen caculator that you can play games on and with a screen bigger than the nintendo dsi's, it's awesome.
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I did think of a quadratic equation but the linear equation had a relationship of 0.9999 which is almost perfect and a quadratic equation would be something like 0.001

Bow down to the power of paper.


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#27 2009-11-29 17:18:11

illusionist
Retired Community Moderator
Registered: 2008-07-02
Posts: 1000+

Re: Number of Projects

Week 6! (all real data this time)

Lets see how things are increasing.


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#28 2009-11-29 17:46:51

Greatdane
Scratcher
Registered: 2007-06-05
Posts: 1000+

Re: Number of Projects

614437
604688 Difference: 9749
597465 Difference: 7223
589740 Difference: 7725
581847 Difference: 7893
573953 Difference: 7894
565960 Difference: 7993
557967 Difference: 7993
Yes! The increase went by 2,000! Let me calculate...


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#29 2009-11-29 17:47:53

RHY3756547
Scratcher
Registered: 2009-08-15
Posts: 1000+

Re: Number of Projects

cocoanut wrote:

what-the wrote:

TheSaint wrote:


I can do it with my 100 dollar one. Have you thought of a quadratic equation might be a better fit? Probably will once we get more data.

Bow down to my o mighty powerful touch screen caculator that you can play games on and with a screen bigger than the nintendo dsi's, it's awesome.
_____________________________
I did think of a quadratic equation but the linear equation had a relationship of 0.9999 which is almost perfect and a quadratic equation would be something like 0.001

Bow down to the power of paper.

*bows*

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#30 2009-11-29 17:49:24

Greatdane
Scratcher
Registered: 2007-06-05
Posts: 1000+

Re: Number of Projects

My calculations show it will take:
40.548979382500769309672786952508 weeks(without inflation)

Which is about..
10 months...

Or around October 3rd, 2010.


The future belongs to those who believe in the beauty of their dreams.
        ~ Eleanor Roosevelt

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#31 2009-11-29 17:59:38

RHY3756547
Scratcher
Registered: 2009-08-15
Posts: 1000+

Re: Number of Projects

Greatdane wrote:

My calculations show it will take:
40.548979382500769309672786952508 weeks(without inflation)

Which is about..
10 months...

Or around October 3rd, 2010.

I'll see if I can get an inflated one.

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#32 2009-11-29 18:11:44

greenflash
Scratcher
Registered: 2009-05-27
Posts: 1000+

Re: Number of Projects

Well, so far it's looking like it will be about a year....


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#33 2009-11-29 18:45:53

illusionist
Retired Community Moderator
Registered: 2008-07-02
Posts: 1000+

Re: Number of Projects

Greatdane wrote:

614437
604688 Difference: 9749
597465 Difference: 7223
589740 Difference: 7725
581847 Difference: 7893
573953 Difference: 7894
565960 Difference: 7993
557967 Difference: 7993
Yes! The increase went by 2,000! Let me calculate...

It must have been caused by that new article! It wouldn't have suddenly gained 9000 for no reason!  smile


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#34 2009-11-29 20:06:43

what-the
Scratcher
Registered: 2009-10-04
Posts: 1000+

Re: Number of Projects

Old linear equation: number of projects = 7820 x weeks + 550380 , with very strong relationship of 0.99998869 out of 1.

New linear equation: number of projects =  7961.9428 * weeks + 565821.53 ,with still a very strong relationship of 0.9984846 . This shows that the linear equation is increasing and so it is a quadratic or exponetial graph.

I've done a quadratic one here it is. remember it's y = ax^2+bx+c

Number of projects = 117.76785*weeks^2 + 7137.5678*weeks + 566920.7 <--- this seems very possible. That means week 37.6 there will be over 1 million projects. That means by the 21st of August 2010 there will be over 1 million projects.


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Find someone post count. Click posts under username. Find number of pages. Times that by 40 for min and 60 for max and you have a rough estimate of post count.

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#35 2009-11-29 21:14:22

illusionist
Retired Community Moderator
Registered: 2008-07-02
Posts: 1000+

Re: Number of Projects

Yipeee!!!  lol

I wish I were that good at math. XD


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#36 2009-11-29 21:21:23

Greatdane
Scratcher
Registered: 2007-06-05
Posts: 1000+

Re: Number of Projects

illusionist wrote:

Yipeee!!!  lol

I wish I were that good at math. XD

You don't have to be a geek to do that.  tongue


The future belongs to those who believe in the beauty of their dreams.
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#37 2009-11-29 21:56:00

what-the
Scratcher
Registered: 2009-10-04
Posts: 1000+

Re: Number of Projects

With my caculator there's almost no maths involved (mental). Just enter the data into a table then select "calc" then press what I want. Which was "linear reg" and "quadratic reg" and copy out the results. Then go the the graph it made and trace for 1 million projects. Very easy to do and being touch screen, I can do it very fast.


http://imageshack.us/m/64/9034/ddfss.pngMy site
Find someone post count. Click posts under username. Find number of pages. Times that by 40 for min and 60 for max and you have a rough estimate of post count.

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#38 2009-11-29 21:57:10

cocoanut
Scratcher
Registered: 2007-07-10
Posts: 1000+

Re: Number of Projects

what-the wrote:

With my caculator there's almost no maths involved (mental). Just enter the data into a table then select "calc" then press what I want. Which was "linear reg" and "quadratic reg" and copy out the results. Then go the the graph it made and trace for 1 million projects. Very easy to do and being touch screen, I can do it very fast.

Bow down to the power of paper....


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#39 2009-11-29 22:07:47

Chrischb
Scratcher
Registered: 2008-07-24
Posts: 1000+

Re: Number of Projects

It seems pretty straight at the moment, though.


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#40 2009-11-29 22:26:40

ScratchX
Scratcher
Registered: 2009-05-05
Posts: 1000+

Re: Number of Projects

if we had TONS of new users that were like Doody and they upload a ton of projects everyday then our rates would skyrocket.  tongue   big_smile


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#41 2009-12-07 19:17:27

illusionist
Retired Community Moderator
Registered: 2008-07-02
Posts: 1000+

Re: Number of Projects

Week seven.

I notice a decrease in the frequency?


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#42 2009-12-09 15:25:31

markyparky56
Scratcher
Registered: 2008-03-20
Posts: 1000+

Re: Number of Projects

*watching* this looks very interesting.


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#43 2009-12-13 11:31:16

markyparky56
Scratcher
Registered: 2008-03-20
Posts: 1000+

Re: Number of Projects

no new updates?


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#44 2009-12-13 17:59:36

illusionist
Retired Community Moderator
Registered: 2008-07-02
Posts: 1000+

Re: Number of Projects

Update! Added week 8 data and an increase chart!  big_smile


http://i.imgur.com/8LX1NrV.png

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#45 2009-12-13 20:14:52

Greatdane
Scratcher
Registered: 2007-06-05
Posts: 1000+

Re: Number of Projects

I'm working on it. I am looking through the Scratch Team's repositories and building a chart for the increase of projects.


The future belongs to those who believe in the beauty of their dreams.
        ~ Eleanor Roosevelt

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#46 2009-12-13 21:56:09

boysrule
Scratcher
Registered: 2009-11-16
Posts: 16

Re: Number of Projects

awesome  smile

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#47 2009-12-14 11:01:53

markyparky56
Scratcher
Registered: 2008-03-20
Posts: 1000+

Re: Number of Projects

intresting, after the increase of 2000 projects, the increase went down by aprox. 3000 projects... strange... probly a lot of people have slowed down for christmas.


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#48 2009-12-20 12:41:07

illusionist
Retired Community Moderator
Registered: 2008-07-02
Posts: 1000+

Re: Number of Projects

week 9  neutral




I predict a massive spike this week. It is Christmas week after all.  smile

Last edited by illusionist (2009-12-20 12:54:18)


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#49 2009-12-20 13:23:34

markyparky56
Scratcher
Registered: 2008-03-20
Posts: 1000+

Re: Number of Projects

illusionist wrote:

week 9  neutral




I predict a massive spike this week. It is Christmas week after all.  smile

Though there might be a massive slump, because people are busy with getting ready for christmas.


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#50 2009-12-29 17:10:55

illusionist
Retired Community Moderator
Registered: 2008-07-02
Posts: 1000+

Re: Number of Projects

Ten weeks!  lol

As predicted by markyparky56, a smaller increase.  sad


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